Strong numbers over Thanksgiving mark the start of a robust retail season
The 2010 retail season kicked into high gear on Black Friday. All key metrics were up on a YoY basis; revenues were up 33%, spend was up 37% and ROI was up 3%. The positive trend continued over cyber Monday too where the numbers were up 35%,20% and 12% respectively. In fact, numbers were up over the entire Thanksgiving week (counted from the Monday before Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday).

Online consumers are getting bargain savvy but are increasing in number
When we examined the query volume over Thanksgiving week, we noted a shift in buying patterns between 2009 and 2010. This year, consumers searched a lot closer to Black Friday. Further, they continued making purchases over the weekend. This was unlike last year when consumers searched throughout Thanksgiving week until Black Friday. Query volume then dropped and picked up on Cyber Monday.

Both Spend and Revenue growth came from higher consumer volume this year. Spend which was 27% more this Thanksgiving week than last year, increased because of a 33.4% increase in click volume. CPCs on the other hand declined 4.5%. Similarly, although the average consumer made a 4.9% smaller order this year, the overall number of orders was 40.9% higher.

These trends reflect an interesting consumer trend. While the number of consumers making purchases online has sharply increased, this consumer is a bargain savvy one, willing to wait until Black Friday/Cyber Monday to make a discounted purchases.
Advertisers might be missing an opportunity
The return on investment for advertisers can be a good indicator to estimate if advertisers are catching to trends in consumer demand. When ROI on advertiser campaigns increase dramatically it means that they are operating far above their acceptable efficiency targets and are extremely profitable. However, while this may sound like good news, it also means that they are not capturing profitable traffic and are therefore sacrificing volume. ROI trends for both 2009 and 2010 reveal that advertisers were far above their baseline ROI numbers on Cyber Monday. We estimate that they could have gained 30-40% more business on Cyber Monday had they increased their SEM budgets for Cyber Monday.

Conclusions
The numbers from Thanksgiving week are highly positive for retailers; this season is going to be great. Based on the trends we are seeing, we expect retail advertisers to spend 20-25% more this quarter than in the retail season last year.
We are also seeing a shift in consumer buying patterns. The average consumer is more bargain savvy and is looking to buy between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Advertisers should pay heed to this trend and spend more in the same time period.
Finally, ROI trends indicate that advertisers have not captured all profitable consumer volume this Cyber Monday. Similar analysis on past data for December reveals that advertisers tend to underestimate demand during the month and miss out on profitable traffic. We hope that retailers capitalize on this opportunity and capture untapped consumer volume by increasing their advertising budgets.
Dr. Siddharth Shah
Director, Business Analytics